One venue at 10% feels bleak. A season of venues is a different number.
Researchers judge their chances one venue at a time, but a paper is usually a campaign: this conference, then that journal, then the next. Build a target list of up to 8 venues and this checker adds the list up properly: the chance at least one accepts, the chance none do, and the expected number of acceptances if you work through the whole list.
The Conf Journal dataset records acceptance rates for 8 of its 329 venues. Recorded rates are badged; every other rate is your own estimate, and the math is the same either way.
Build your target list
Search the Conf Journal directory by venue name or acronym. A venue with a recorded rate arrives with that rate locked in. Any other venue asks for your own estimate. You can also add a venue that is not in the directory at all.
329 venues. Only 8 carry a recorded acceptance rate; the rest will say so plainly when you pick them.
Custom venues always use your own estimate for the rate.
Your list
0 of 8 venuesNo venues yet. Search above and add the places you are actually considering, in the order you would try them.
Two free odds checks per day on this connection; after that, an email unlocks unlimited checks for the rest of the day. Building and editing your list is always free, and re-running an unchanged list is free too. Only a changed list counts as a new check.
Your odds across this list
Read this before you quote the number
These numbers treat each venue's decision as independent of the others. In reality the same paper goes to each, so a strong paper lifts every line and a weak one lowers them; treat this as a planning sketch, not a forecast. Journal submissions also run one at a time, so read the list as a campaign across seasons, not a simultaneous blast.
The math, in the open
- Chance at least one accepts = 1 - (1 - p1) x (1 - p2) x ... across your list, where each p is a venue's rate as a probability.
- Chance none accept = (1 - p1) x (1 - p2) x ... across your list.
- Expected acceptances = p1 + p2 + ... across your list.
- About 1 in X = 100 divided by the venue's rate, rounded to the nearest whole number.
- Where rates come from. The Conf Journal dataset records acceptance rates for 8 of its 329 venues: those rates are badged "Recorded in the Conf Journal dataset" and cannot be edited. Every other rate in a result is the visitor's own estimate, badged "Your estimate". No rate is ever filled in, scraped, or inferred by this tool.